A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
